Truce prevents Azerbaijan from developing its military success

A ceasefire agreement did not allow the Azerbaijani army to establish control over all of Nagorno-Karabakh and gave the Armenian side the opportunity to retain part of the territories, Russian political analysts and military experts note. The Human Rights Centre (HRC) "Memorial" welcomed the introduction of Russian peacekeepers into the Karabakh conflict zone, but called the UN intervention a condition for stabilization of the situation.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that the agreement of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia on the cessation of the hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh has come into force today. In particular, it provides for the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in the Karabakh conflict zone. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev announced a joint peacekeeping mission of the military personnel from Russia and Turkey, which contradicted the Moscow's position.

The HRC "Memorial" expressed the hope that the reached agreement would help stop the war and ensure the safety of civilians. "Over the years, the international community, including the OSCE Minsk Group, has done actually nothing to find ways for real settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Today, we have to hope that the security of the civilian population will be ensured by Russian peacekeepers," the human rights defenders noted.

At the same time, the HRC "Memorial" pointed to the instability of the current situation. "We can talk about another 'frozen conflict.' In the long term, stabilization is possible only if the UN takes responsibility for ensuring peace, fulfilling the reached agreements, and controlling the process of further settlement," emphasizes the today's publication on the website of the HRC "Memorial".

In the current situation, Armenia will first of all benefit from the signed agreement, political analyst Arkady Dubnov believes. "Armenia got the opportunity to keep Karabakh under its influence. This is a return to the only possible format to retain Karabakh, and this is the only possibility for it to remain itself in the future. If this agreement had not been signed, Armenia would have every chance of losing Karabakh. In some sense, today is a victory for Armenians," said Arkady Dubnov as quoted by the "Ekho Moskvy" today.

Despite its military successes, Azerbaijan had to agree to a peace agreement after the incident with a Russian helicopter, believes Reserve Colonel Viktor Murakhovsky, a member of the expert council of the collegium of the Military-Industrial Commission of the Russian Federation. "In connection with a shelling attack on the Russian helicopter in the airspace of Armenia, Baku had to accept the Moscow's proposal, otherwise Azerbaijan would have had a very hard time," said Viktor Murakhovsky as quoted by the newspaper "Vzglyad".

At the time when the ceasefire agreement was being concluded, the Azerbaijani troops stayed close to the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, and the Armenian side did not have enough resources for its defence, notes Alexander Markarov, the head of the Armenian branch of the CIS Institute. According to him, Russia, contrary to the Armenia's expectations, intervened in the conflict only on the verge of a "national catastrophe." The expert suggests that the introduction of Russian peacekeepers prevented a mass exodus of Armenians from Karabakh, the "Pravda" reports.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on November 10, 2020 at 05:55 pm MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.