In 2018, the count of conflict victims in Northern Caucasus dropped by 38%

Chechen law enforcers in October 2018. Photo: Maxim Shemetov/REUTERS

Terror in Northern Caucasus continues; in the first half of 2019, 31 people were killed and wounded in the North-Caucasian Federal District (NCFD) – less than during the first six months of 2018. In general, last year, as compared to 2017, there were fewer shootouts, explosions and deaths, but not everywhere. In the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (KBR) and the Stavropol Territory, the number of victims went up. The largest count of those killed and wounded was in Dagestan, with Chechnya taking the second place. The present review of the "Caucasian Knot" presents not only the latest data on the conflict victims. A circular diagram based on the data for eight years clearly shows how the situation was changing within each region of the NCFD; while the interactive infographics allows comparing the dynamics in different NCFD Caucasus during 2011-2018.

Table of contents

In 2018, the overall count of victims of the armed conflict in Northern Caucasus decreased by 38.3% compared to 2017, namely, from 175 down to 108 persons. Last year, out of all the regions of the NCFD, the largest number of those killed and wounded was in Dagestan; Chechnya taking the second place in this specific "anti-rating".

Traditionally, the number of victims – those killed and wounded – during armed clashes, explosions and terror acts is the main indicator of the intensity of any armed conflict; however, the very number of such incidents is no less important and informative.

In 2018, the number of armed incidents in Northern Caucasus went down: in 2018, there were 38 of them against 51 in 2017. The drop was by 25.5%.

The "Caucasian Knot" is regularly registering the number of victims and armed incidents in the conflict zone of Northern Caucasus in its section "Northern Caucasus – victim statistics". According to the calculations run by the "Caucasian Knot", in January-June 2019, at least 31 people fell victim to the conflict. This is almost a half against the count of the first six months of 2018, when at least 63 people suffered in the conflict. For the first half of 2019, the count of conflict victims includes 23 casualties and eight wounded persons. The casualties include 22 alleged militants and one law enforcer, the list of those wounded – seven law enforcers and one civilian. In the first six months of 2019, the KBR was in the lead by the number of recorded victims – nine casualties and one wounded person. Next is Dagestan with at least nine people killed in January-June of 2019. In Chechnya, two people were killed and four others wounded; in Ingushetia – one person killed and three wounded; in the Stavropol Territory, two people were killed. Dagestan is the leader in the number of armed incidents – at least four armed clashes took place in this republic during the first six months of 2019. Three armed incidents were registered in the KBR during the same period; two in Chechnya, one in Ingushetia and the Stavropol Territory each. Since the beginning of this year, there have been no conflict victims and armed incidents in the KChR and North Ossetia. The dynamics in the number of armed incidents in previous years – in 2014-2018 – is vividly presented in the inforgraphics of the "Caucasian Knot" "Armed incidents and victims thereof in Northern Caucasus". It presents the outcomes for the entire period, separately by years and NCFD regions. The graphs indicate the total number of victims, as well as how many people and in what type of incidents were killed and wounded.


Armed incidents and victims in Northern Caucasus

Overall, 82 persons were killed in 2018 against 134 people; thus, the casualty count decreased by 38.8%, while the number of those wounded decreased from 41 in 2017 to 26 in 2018, i.e., by 36.6%.

In 2018, in the NCFD, the total number of civilian victims was 13 people: ten were killed and three others were wounded, that is, the total number of civilian victims was by 66.7% less than in 2017, when 39 people fell victim: 30 were killed and nine others were wounded.

Law enforcers inspect a church in May 2018. Photo: REUTERS/Said Tsarnayev

In 2018, the number of victims among law enforcers was 30 people: seven were killed and 23 others wounded. In 2017, the number of victims of the armed conflict among law enforcers amounted to 53 people: 22 were killed and 31 others wounded. Thus, in comparison with 2017, the total losses among law enforcers decreased by 43.4%, this is clearly shown in the diagram "Statistics of victims in Northern Caucasus in 2018 according to the "Caucasian Knot".

Statistics of victims in Northern Caucasus in 2018 according to the "Caucasian Knot"

The overall victim count among alleged militants, which in 2017, amounted to 83 persons, of which 82 were killed and one wounded, in 2018, dropped to 65 people (all of them killed, nobody wounded), that is, dropped by 21.7%.

It should be noted here that in a number of cases, victims' relatives claim their non-involvement in the armed underground. The "Caucasian Knot" seeks to verify the data from law enforcement structures, although this is not always possible.

Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia – leaders in the number of victims

In 2018, in Chechnya, at least 35 people fell victim to the armed conflict, of whom at least 26 were killed and nine others wounded. Last year, in the republic, the victim count among civilians was three persons: two were killed and one wounded. In 2018, among law enforcers, the number of victims was 11: three casualties and eight others wounded. Among the conflict victims, there are also 21 members of illegal armed formations (IAFs) – all of them were killed. As compared with 2017, when there were 75 victims, the 2018 overall victim count decreased by 53.3%.

Information is often received from Chechnya about special (counterterrorist) operations, the only victims of which are alleged members of the armed underground, while any data on the wounded law enforcers and civilians are missing. Official reports about incidents in Chechnya need serious verification, but it is very difficult to verify or refute the truthfulness thereof, Oleg Orlov and Ekaterina Sokiryanskaya, human rights defenders, told the "Caucasian Knot" earlier. People, who are dissatisfied with the Chechen authorities, can attack policemen; however, extrajudicial executions, disguised as armed clashes, have long been practiced in the Caucasus, Svetlana Gannushkina, the head of the Civil Assistance Committee, believes.

In 2018, at least 49 people fell victim to the armed conflict in Dagestan: 36 people perished and 13 others were wounded. The main casualties, like in 2017, were among militants. In 2018, the losses of the armed underground amounted to 27 people; 14 law enforcers suffered: three were killed, and 11 others were wounded). Six civilians were killed and two others were wounded. The overall victim count compared to 2017, when there were 55 victims, decreased by 10.9%.

In 2018, at least ten people fell victim to the armed conflict in Ingushetia: eight perished and two others were wounded. In 2018, in Ingushetia, the most numerous category of conflict victims were militants: 60% of the overall victim count (6 persons – all were killed). The law enforcers, as well as the civilian population, each accounted for 20% of the total number of conflict victims (two wounded law enforcers and two killed civilians). As compared with 2017, when at least 24 people became conflict victims (11 were killed and 13 were wounded), the overall victim count decreased by 58.3%.

In 2018, eight victims of the armed conflict were registered in the Stavropol Territory: two law enforcers were wounded, six militants were killed, and there were no casualties among the civilian population. Whereas in 2017, the victim count of the armed conflict in the region was six persons. Thus, the number of victims increased by a third, or by 33.3%.

In 2018, in the KBR, six people perished in the armed conflict: one law enforcer and five militants. At the same time, in 2017, only one victim of the armed conflict was recorded in this republic (one alleged militant was killed).

In 2018, there were no victims of armed conflict in North Ossetia. At the same time, in 2017, nine conflict victims were registered there. Thus, last year, North Ossetia regained its status of a peaceful region within the area of an armed conflict.

A similar situation was in the KChR: last year, there were no victims of the armed conflict. At the same time, in 2017, at least five people fell victim to the armed conflict in this republic (all of them died).

In 2010-2018, the victim count was markedly differed not only from region to region, but also within one and the same region, which is evident from the diagram "Statistics of victims in Northern Caucasus in 2010-2018 according to the "Caucasian Knot".

Statistics of victims in Northern Caucasus in 2010-2018 according to the "Caucasian Knot"

Armed incidents: in the NCFD, the number thereof cases dropped by 25.5%, the victim count – by 19.2%

The "Caucasian Knot" treats any event, involving the presence, at the same time, of two parties (militants and law enforcers), in which combat weapons are purposefully used by one or both parties, regardless of the type of weapons, as an armed incident. Armed incidents include all cases of using grenades and grenade launcher shells, as well as all car explosions.

In 2018, 38 armed incidents were registered in Northern Caucasus. At least 105 people suffered in them: 79 were killed and 26 others wounded.

The death toll included 64 alleged IAF members, seven law enforcers and eight civilians; among those wounded, there were 23 law enforcers and three civilians.

Let us remind you that in 2017, a total of 51 armed incidents were registered in NCFD regions, in which at least 130 people suffered: 101 died and 29 others were wounded. The death toll included 80 alleged IAF members, 19 law enforcers and two civilians; among those wounded, there were 20 law enforcers, one alleged IAF member and eight civilians.

In 2018, the number of armed incidents in NCFD, as compared with 2017, decreased by 25.5%. The victim count therein decreased by 19.2%. According to the calculations of the "Caucasian Knot", since 2010 at least 6644 people fell victim to the armed conflict in Northern Caucasus. The dynamics in the number of victims is vividly presented in the graph "Statistics of victims in Northern Caucasus in 2010-2018 according to the data of the "Caucasian Knot".

Statistics of victims in Northern Caucasus in 2010-2018 according to the "Caucasian Knot"

KBR: sixfold increase in victim count of armed incidents

In 2018, three armed incidents were registered in the KBR, in which six people suffered: five militants and one law enforcer were killed.

In 2017, the KBR registered one armed incident, in which one person was killed – an alleged militant.

Consequently, the number of armed incidents in the KBR in 2018 increased threefold as compared with 2017, while the victim count therein went up sixfold.

Stavropol Territory: growth in the number of incidents and victims therein by a third

In 2018, four armed incidents were registered in the Stavropol Territory, in which there were eight victims: six killed alleged militants and two wounded law enforcers.

In 2017, three armed incidents were registered in the territory, in which six alleged IAF members were killed; no information was received about those wounded.

Thus, we can conclude that in 2018, the number of armed incidents in the territory increased by 33.3%, as compared with 2017, and that the number of victims in these incidents went up also by 33.3%.

Chechnya: the number of armed incidents increased by 37.5%

In 2018, 11 armed incidents were registered in Chechnya, in which at least 34 people suffered: 25 were killed and nine others were wounded. The death toll included 21 alleged IAF members, three law enforcers and one civilian; among those wounded, there were eight law enforcers and one civilian.

In 2017, eight armed incidents were registered in Chechnya, in which at least 40 people suffered: 31 perished and nine others were wounded. The death toll included 19 alleged IAF members, 11 law enforcers and one civilian; among those wounded, there were seven law enforcers and two civilians.

Thus, in 2018, the number of armed incidents in Chechnya increased by 37.5%, as compared with 2017. The overall victim count in them decreased by 15%, while the number of victims among militants increased by 10.5%.

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Ingushetia: victim count of armed incidents and victims dropped

In 2018, there were three armed incidents in Ingushetia, in which nine people suffered: seven were killed and two others were wounded. The casualties included five militants and two civilians; two law enforcers were wounded.

In 2017, there were ten armed incidents in Ingushetia, in which 18 people suffered: nine were killed and the same number wounded. The casualties included two law enforcers and seven militants; among those wounded, there were five law enforcers and four civilians.

It follows from the aforesaid that in 2018, the number of armed incidents in Ingushetia went down by 70%, as compared with 2017, while the victim count got halved, i.e., dropped by 50%.

Dagestan: armed incident victim count dropped by 29%

Last year, in terms of the number of armed incidents, Dagestan remained the leader among the NCFD regions: in 2018, 17 armed incidents were registered here, in which 48 people suffered: 35 were killed and 13 others were wounded.

The death toll included 27 alleged IAF members, three law enforcers and five civilians; among those wounded there were 11 law enforcers and two civilians.

In 2017, 24 armed incidents were registered here, in which 51 people suffered: 44 were killed and seven wounded. The death toll included 38 alleged IAF members, five law enforcers and one civilian; among those wounded, there were five law enforcers, one civilian and one militant.

Thus, in 2018, the number of armed incidents in Dagestan decreased by 29.2%, as compared with 2017, and the number of victims – dropped by 5.9%.

No armed incidents registered in the KChR and North Ossetia

In 2017, one armed incident was fixed in the KChR, five people fell victim thereto, all of them died. All the casualties were alleged IAF members.

Also in 2017, North Ossetia saw four armed incidents, in which nine people suffered: five were killed and four others wounded. The death toll included four alleged IAF members and one law enforcer; among those wounded, there were three law enforcers and one civilian.

Explosions and terror acts: explosions decrease, terror acts increase

In 2018, five explosions were committed in the NCFD regions, to which four people fell victim: two perished militants and two wounded law enforcers.

In 2018, five terror acts were registered in the NCFD regions, in which 31 people suffered: 19 were killed and 12 others wounded. The death toll includes six civilians, two law enforcers and 11 militants; among those wounded, there were three civilians and nine law enforcers.

The "terror acts" category included both explosions, and armed attacks and other events that happened in the residential/public sector, or in a specific strategic object, organized with the aim of violating the public security, intimidating the population or influencing the decision-making by the authorities. Terror acts also include all cases of suicide bombing, but exclude targeted (purposeful) and non-targeted explosions in forests and other non-public areas, and all car explosions.

In 2017, 14 explosions occurred in the NCFD regions, in which 20 people suffered: eight ones perished, 12 others wounded. The death toll included three militants, three law enforcers and two civilians; 11 law enforcers and one civilian were wounded. Of all the explosions, two were qualified as terror acts, in which six people suffered: two perished and four were wounded. The casualties included one law enforcer and one militant, while the count of those wounded included four law enforcers.

Thus, in 2018, the number of explosions committed in the territory of the NCFD, as compared with 2017, went down, while the number of terror acts went up. The overall explosion victim count in 2018, as compared to 2017, decreased by 80%; the overall victim count of terror acts in 2018, as compared to 2017, increased almost fivefold.

Special forces on the outskirts of Makhachkala. Photo: REUTERS/Stringer

Dagestan: victim count growth after a major terror act

In 2018, one explosion and one terror act were committed in Dagestan.

The explosion occurred at night on May 8, in the Dagestani village of Chirkei: a ziyarat (commemoration of the dead) room at the grave of Sheikh Said of Chirkei was blown up. No one was hurt by the explosion.

The attack in Kizlyar, where on February 18, during the holiday of Shrovetide, a 23-year-old local resident opened fire on people, was recognized as a terror act. As a result thereof, four people were killed and three other civilians were wounded. At an attempt to detain him, the attacker wounded two law enforcers and was shot dead. Later, one of the civilians – a woman – died at hospital. Thus, the terror act hit ten people: six were killed and four others wounded.

In 2017, Dagestan saw six explosions; three civilians fell victim thereto: two were killed and one was wounded. One of the explosions was qualified as a terror act, in which no one suffered.

The total number of explosions committed in the territory of Dagestan in 2018, as compared with 2017, decreased sixfold, or by 83.3%, while the number of terror acts remained the same. The number of victims of explosions and terror acts went up from three to ten people.

Chechnya: fewer explosions, more terror acts

In 2018 Chechnya registered three terror acts, including two self-explosions, to which two persons fell victim – the suicide bombers themselves, who died. 21 people fell victim to the terror acts, of whom 13 ones perished, including the suicide bombers: two law enforcers, one civilian and ten alleged militants; eight people were wounded: seven law enforcers and one civilian.

In 2017, at least four explosions were registered in Chechnya, but none of them was qualified as a terror act. The explosions hit ten people, of whom three perished: two law enforcers and one alleged IAF member; seven law enforcers were wounded.

Thus, the number of explosions, committed in 2018 in the territory of the republic, as compared with 2017, decreased by 50%, but terror acts were committed again. In 2018, the overall explosion victim count and terror acts compared with 2017 increased by 110%.

Law enforcers. Photo: Yuri Mukhin and Alexander Kolesnikov, Rosgvardia press service

Ingushetia: threefold drop in the number of victims of explosions

In 2018, two explosions occurred in Ingushetia. One of them, when a grenade was thrown into the yard of a residential house, could be qualified as a terror act. It did without victims. The second explosion wounded two law enforcers. This grenade explosion triggered one of the armed incidents; therefore, the victims thereof are also included into the victim count of armed incidents.

In 2017, also two explosions were registered in Ingushetia, one of which was a terror act with six victims: two casualties, including one law enforcer and one militant who blew himself up, and four wounded law enforcers. There were no casualties in the second explosion.

Thus, in 2018, the total number of explosions and terror acts in the region was the same as in 2017, but the overall explosion victim count decreased threefold. In 2018, unlike the previous year, there are no self-explosions among terror acts, and there are no civilians among the explosions victims.

Four regions without explosions and terror acts

In 2018, there were no explosions and terror acts in the KBR, the KChR, North Ossetia and the Stavropol Territory.

A year earlier, in 2017, there were also no explosions or terror acts committed in the territory of the KChR, North Ossetia and the KBR. In 2017, two explosions were registered in the Stavropol Territory, which killed one alleged IAF member died.

We emphasize here that the above statistics cannot with the 100 percent precision present the number of victims for each of the categories considered in this review. Not all the data gets into news bulletins. It is not always possible to verify how true the statements of law enforcement bodies are, as well as to establish the involvement of members of the armed underground in specific crimes.