Preparation of international lawsuits marked Baku's political distancing from Moscow

Azerbaijan's threat to sue Russia over the crash of the AZAL plane creates a negative backdrop for bilateral relations, but does not rule out reaching a political compromise in the near future, analysts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" believe.  

As "Caucasian Knot" wrote, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced the preparation of documents to file claims in international courts over the crash of the AZAL plane, since Russia did not admit guilt and did not punish those responsible for the deaths. In response, the press secretary of the Russian president said that Moscow hopes for an improvement in Russian-Azerbaijani relations.

A research fellow at the Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies Alexander Karavaev, an employee at the Adam Smith Research Center Sergey Boyko, as well as lawyers Timofey Shirokov and Marina Agaltsova commented on Baku's plans to file a lawsuit against Russia in international courts to the "Caucasian Knot".

The conflict situation that arose between Baku and Moscow after the crash of the AZAL airliner could have been resolved either by a political agreement or by full moral satisfaction, Alexander Karavaev pointed out. "For some reason, the political route was not optimal for Baku, the reason for this lies not in the reaction of the Russian Federation itself, but in deeper processes. For Baku, this became a reason to begin to distance itself politically from Moscow," he believes.

Since the event is resonant and public in nature, Baku is moving along the route of moral satisfaction, he explained. "In this mode, everything will happen as usual: an investigation, then a verdict of an international judicial body, and so on. But for Moscow, this is not critical, at least according to Peskov's remarks," Karavaev noted.

According to him, the threat to file a lawsuit creates a negative background in relations in principle. "A compromise is a certain position of the parties that will be obvious to observers after the end of the crisis. It will inevitably end, and a certain new "normality" of relations will be achieved," the analyst believes.

In his opinion, in general, the political culture of the two countries is quite close, so a radical reset of the settings of bilateral relations will not happen. "But a serious revision on both sides is a welcome change to a different model of interaction - a "colder" one, without any preferences in relation to each other. The benefit for the countries is that by introducing tougher and more radical mechanisms into the field of interaction, the parties can untie past problematic knots, revise previous deal formulas, and get rid of any "toxic" baggage that has accumulated over the past years on both sides: something was a form of compromise, something was not taken into account or forgiven," Karavaev summed up.

Opportunities for compromise remain until "the tanks have crossed the border," so Baku's appeal to international courts does not exclude an improvement in relations in the future, political scientist Sergey Boyko believes. "Filing a lawsuit against the Russian Federation for the downing of the AZAL plane is within the framework of neighborly relations to demand compensation from the party responsible for the deaths," he told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

Boyko noted that Russia acted in relation to Azerbaijan using its usual methods. “In particular, it resorted to pressure on representatives of the influential Azerbaijani diaspora who have strong ties with the elites. However, after the victory over Karabakh and with the support of Turkey, Azerbaijan pursued a policy of reducing Russia's influence. This includes restrictions on Russian soft power - NGOs, media, etc., and the preparation of lawsuits against AZAL. Aliyev is fixing a new sovereign status for Azerbaijan, independent from the Russian Federation, especially since Russia is mired in the Ukrainian conflict. As I see it, he is simply trying to squeeze the maximum out of the current situation. And there is always the option to call the Kremlin and negotiate, it's just that now is the time to raise the stakes,” Boyko emphasized.

Existing agreements on international cooperation oblige the Russian Investigative Committee and other bodies to respond to requests from the Prosecutor General's Office of Azerbaijan, noted lawyer Timofey Shirokov.

"But the scope of the response is not regulated by law and depends on the position of officials, which, in turn, depends on the state of interstate relations. It is unlikely that they limit themselves to one phrase about the secrecy of the investigation, although it is quite possible that somewhere there is a reference to a state secret. Somewhere some question is ignored, in some place the answer to the question is evasive and vague,” he said.

Since Azerbaijan is conducting its own criminal case regarding the plane crash, Baku needed specific names and actions, the lawyer believes. “Perhaps they wanted to interrogate some people or conduct their investigative actions in the Russian Federation. Of course, they need a lot of information from their Russian colleagues. These requests from the Azerbaijani side are possibly not being fulfilled satisfactorily, apparently, this is connected with the grievance,” Shirokov believes.

Lawyer Marina Agaltsova noted that there is a federal law “On the procedure for considering appeals from citizens of the Russian Federation” No. 59-FZ of May 2, 2005. “According to it, investigative bodies must respond to requests from both citizens of the Russian Federation and foreign citizens in the Russian Federation, including foreign organizations and diplomatic missions located in the Russian Federation. It is possible to make a request from the Azerbaijani consulate in the Russian Federation, but it is likely that an agreement on the exchange of information from investigative bodies occurs at the level of agreements between the Foreign Ministries of both countries,” she told a “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.

Materials about the deterioration of relations between the two states have been collected by the “Caucasian Knot” on the thematic page “The collapse of ties between Baku and Moscow”.

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