Military experts assess risks for Russia in aggravation of Karabakh conflict

Azerbaijan had been preparing well in advance for an operation in the Karabakh conflict zone, the Russian military experts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" believe. In their opinion, it will not be possible to quickly stop the flared up confrontation, but Russia can enter the warfare only if the Turkish Army crosses the Armenian border.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that on September 27, combats broke out in the Karabakh conflict zone.

Pavel Felgengauer, a military observer of the "Novaya Gazeta" newspaper, treats the outbreak of hostilities in the Karabakh conflict zone as a pre-planned event.

"It takes a long time to design such large-scale military operations. Azerbaijan had had this plan for a long time; it was not drawn up a few days before the start of the offensive," he told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent on September 28.

The military expert is sure that, unlike the 2016 events, when the hostilities lasted only a few days, this time the war will last longer.

In his opinion, if the full-scale military actions continue, Russia will face political risks.

"Moscow treats Transcaucasia as its influence area; and here there is such a disgrace. Besides, further conflict escalation is possible with the involvement of neighbouring countries, for example, of Turkey. The local war may turn into a regional one. Then, Russia will have to take military action on the side of Armenia. This will be inevitable if Turkey joins the military operations," Mr Felgengauer has stressed.

Alexander Perendjiev, a member of the Expert Council of Russian Officers, a military political analyst, also believes that the operation of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan had been pre-planned.

Mr Perendjiev is sure that the current hostilities are different from the 2016 events. "Now, the operations are large-scale and long-term ones. I don't think they will be over in a few days," he has stressed.

He does not agree with the opinion that there are some risks for Russia in full-scale hostilities. "There will be no regional war there; only some parties' hostilities. The risk is present only in one case – if Turkey attacks Armenia. Then, a Russian military intervention will happen. But Russia undertakes to prevent any third countries from interfering in this conflict," Mr Perendjiev is sure.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on September 29, 2020 at 04:30 am MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.